2016 TRAC African Threat Assessment

What does a weakened ISIS means? If we are referring to the loss of territory as the only criteria used to assess ISIS strength and resilience, then the question has relevance. ISIS, however, is more than a political movement/idea; it is also a terror organization and herein lays scenarios for what 2016 could entail.What propaganda material shows us is an ISIS preparing and ready for battlefront warfare, a force trained in armed assaults and use of a variety of weapons.  It tells us how fighters are willing to execute suicide bombings, trained in use of IEDs and fighters inspired by religious convictions. Again ISIS 2016 is not to be found in these obvious openly stated intentions, be it in Syria and Iraq or via Wilayahs.What ISIS does not tell us is its diversification in organised and recruitment cells, its strategies and tactics in enabling inspired and directed organised and single shooter attacks, its use of supply routes to secure movement of foreign fighters and resources,…